We are 7-2 ATS through 3 weeks of doing this and we will roll this week after a 1-2 week in week 11. Love my plays this week. Here we go.
1. Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (+2)
Ravens favored on the road? Excuse me. Look, the Packers roster may not be great but they are not this bad. I am also the conductor of the “Brent Hundley is not that bad” train (even with that doofus-looking helmet he wears). Over his last 2 games, he is completing just under 70 percent of his passes and just won a road game in Soldier Field. To keep going with my tip from last week, flip these points to make the Ravens at home. Would you feel comfortable taking the Ravens laying 8 at home against the Packers? I wouldn’t. I’m taking the Packers getting 2 in Lambeau in a game that they win outright.
2. Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Do you see a trend here? Fade the Bengals. The Bengals got a lucky cover from a moronic fumble by Corey Davis last week. The Broncos also just got embarrassed on Sunday night football by the Patriots (to no one’s surprise). The Bengals have one road win on the year and it was against the Browns. This spread is telling me the Bengal’s are half a point better than the Broncos. I mean that just is not true. The Broncos defense, while not what they were, will still be able to swallow up this struggling Bengals offense. Marvin Lewis could be on his way out of Cincy (finally) and this may be the week that it happens. Broncos only have to swallow less than a field goal. Fine with me. I’ll take the Broncos.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (+7.5)
Wait, you’re taking the Browns? Yes I am. This is by no means saying that the Browns will win this game. I am simply saying that the Browns getting over a touchdown at home is something I will take. The Browns are tanking (again) for all of you living under a rock, but they were able to move the ball against the Lions defense last week. If not for some bonehead plays, like the QB sneak with no timeouts right before the end of the first half last week, the Browns would have covered in Detroit. Now we are hearing that Leonard Fournette will be limited and may not even play in this game. UUUUUUUUGE downgrade for this Jaguars offense. Gut pick here. I see this being close and the Jaguars winning, but not by more than a touchdown. That’s why the Browns are my pick in this one.