Quick note: Week 7 went very well in my debut. Week 8, let’s say the blog got stuck somewhere in Columbus, Ohio from the bender I was on visiting THE Ohio State University. Anyways, that’s behind us, fully recovered and let’s get going for Week 9!
1. Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+3)
As much of a homer pick this is, I really do like the Jets to get the job done on Thursday Night. This is also my classic trap spread. Just like we saw with Carolina at Chicago in Week 7, giving points on the road is never something you want to do. Now to the football talk. The Jets coming into the year, I actually thought would win maybe 2 games. They have proved the entire league wrong with their hard-nosed style of play that has caused them to already exceed mine and many others projected win total. Buffalo also plays a similar style and has exceeded expectations too as they were a projected bottom 5 team as well. Coming off two big road wins against Tampa and Oakland this seems like a classic letdown and look-ahead (Saints at home) game for the Bills. This young Jets team is going to come out hot on their one and only primetime (TNF, eh) game of the year especially early as they have all season. They will continue to play the way they have been playing all year with passion and fire. Jets Rush D will be all over Shady McCoy and McCown and the O will do what they have been doing all year, scoring early and forcing teams to pass the ball. When the Bills have had the pass the ball down in games it has hurt them and even with the addition of Kelvin Benjamin, I see this as the way the Jets take over this game. Maybe it seems like a pick from my heart but I really like the Jets to cover these three points and even win outright. Gimme the points with the Jets.
2. Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5)
Let’s address the elephant in the room. Andy Dalton STINKS. This Bengals team was a Jacoby Brissett pick-6 away from losing at home to the struggling Colts. Now they travel to Jacksonville to see a well rested Jaguars team and a well rested Leonard Fournette. If nursing home patient Frank Gore can run for 82 yards against this Bengals D, Fournette can probably rush for 200. Will he? Probably not but I see not reason he will not run all over them for at least 120 and a score. On the other side of the ball, Dalton has been absolutely stinking up the joint all season with the exception of the Browns game (not saying much). This Jaguars defense has been one of the most impressive units in the entire league this year and it will continue on Sunday as they swallow Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense. I hate laying this many points but I see no way the Jaguars don’t win this game by a touchdown and possibly more. I’ll give the 5 points and take the Jaguars.
3. Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys (PK)
This is your classic trap for bettors. Your average Joe bettor will see this game and say “Wow the Chiefs are the better team and the Cowboys will be without Zeke, let’s house the Chiefs”. Not so fast there buddy. The Chiefs have slowed down from their fast start and this Cowboys team is really been picking it up and will continue in Elliot’s absence. I am a believer that Ezekiel Elliot is phenomenal and it is not all to credit the offensive line. Not everyone can do what Zeke does but the Cowboys have two (possibly 3) legitimate backup running backs to come in and fill that void. Dak Prescott is quietly putting together a great sophomore season and this Cowboys defense continues to overachieve with a deficiency in talent led by D Coordinator Rod Marinelli. It’s just what the man does, get the best out of his players. This is not to take anything away from the season Alex Smith, Kareem Hunt and the Chiefs are having. I just see this as a classic game where Vegas knows where bettors will place their money with this spread. I’m going to take the Cowboys to get this win at home and stay above .500.
Side Note: Take this now as you never know how this Zeke saga will turn out. He could possibly play and that will lean the spread in favor of Dallas.
Let’s have a week like we did in week 7 and continue to rock the books.